3 reasons why Republicans won't make a comeback in 2010

Note: I wrote this as a op-ed article in the New University. It will be published next week.

Although it seemed President Barrack Obama's honeymoon popularity would never end, his glow has finally ceased to exist. Since March, President Obama has dropped 50 percent in his approval rating--the largest drop of an American President in the history of polling. However, it is not just the President who is suffering in the polls, Congress is too. According to Quinnipiac University Poll, congressional Democrats have been declining in their approval ratings, dropping more than 13 points since May. Some major Republican leaders such as Sen. Mitchell McConnell believe that the Democrat's free fall in ratings means a shimmer of hope for Republicans in 2010. However, that notion is about as crazy as the notion of "death panels".

Yes, it is true, President Obama is far from the untouchable realm he was in during the election. Yes, it is true, Democrats have less than been effective despite a heavy majority in Congress. Yes, it is true Democratic approval ratings as a whole have dropped constantly since May. Yet, despite all of this, the Republicans won't make a comeback in 2010 due to four simple reasons.
The first is that the health care debate has overshadowed other aspects of the administration, and it has shown in the ratings. However, sooner or later the debate is going to end, and the focus will shift to other important aspects of his administration (i.e the economy, Iraq, cap and trade). So much of the media's attentions has been focus on the gruesome health care debate, nobody seems to have noticed the economy is on the road to recovery, and according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the rate at which people are losing jobs are declining. Ultimately a huge factor in whether Democrats get re-elected is the economy, and from the looks of it, the economic trends will continue to rise in 2010.

The second reason is that, recently, the republicans have shown themselves to be still be akin to the Bush Administration. Lets face it, the Bush Administration made some pretty serious mistakes, especially on the issue of national security. The last thing republicans need is to relate their policies, in any regard, to the Bush Administration. While John McCain did an effective job of that in the campaign, the Republicans have taken a step backwards. Former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge, a trusted republican voice on homeland security stated on the Rachel Maddow Show, he didn't regret going to war to Iraq. In fact, he failed to acknowledge there was a flaw in the policy makers who drew us into war. As Maddow correctly noted, Americans need to believe won't make the serious mistakes of the Bush/Cheney administration, and unless the republicans begin to acknowledge the mistakes, and separate themselves from it, they will not get their credibility back. This goes for all issues, national security, the economy, energy, everything.

Finally, the third and most important reason, is that republicans are operating on a unsustainable model of politics. Crazy politics. A large contributor to the democratic decline in approval ratings is how difficult the republicans have made it to get anything done. The Republicans have gone about the philosophy stop any bill at any means --including lying, and distortion. While this may have provided a favorable shift in ratings for a time being, Republicans still have not fared well in the polls against Democrats. According to a recent poll by CNN approval ratings for the GOP are at least 10 points below Democrats on almost every major issue, except terrorism.

More importantly however, the Republican mindset of block any Democratic bill at all costs, will eventually ware thin on the American public. This new mindset has forced the republican party to distance itself from moderate, intellectual, conservatism. For the sake of a few numbers in the polls, republicans as a whole have moved towards the extreme right, embracing, encouraging, and in some cases promoting the rhetoric and false claims of extreme conservative pundits such as Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, and Betsy McCaughey. Even Republicans who are considered to be moderate, such as Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty have endorsed radical notions of seccession and "death panels". If a moderate, low-key, Republican is endorsing succeeding from the union because of health reform, what message is being sent to the American public about the Republican part?

While it is true these extreme notions and views may have caused a hiccup for those on the left, the extreme right still only makes up of only a small minority of the American population. The American people can only believe, and tolerate, a certain amount of far-fetched notions and radical rhetoric--a threshold the Republicans are dangerously close to.

That being said, Democrats have made some mistakes, giving an opportunity for Republicans to make ground in the polls. For that to happen, moderation and rational thought needs to return to the GOP. During the later years of the Cold War Ronald Reagan, perhaps unintentionally, started a conservative intellectual movement to bring the republican rhetoric to moderation-- that same moderation and intelligence needs to return to the Republican party if they even have a prayer making significant ground 2010. That means Sarah Palin needs to stop writing on her facebook, that means the Republican party needs to reprimand Joe Wilson instead of endorse him, that means the GOP has to know its contradictory to call Obama a Nazi and Socialist at the same time. Plain and simple, the GOP cannot continue to move in the anti-intellectual direction they are headed.

However, if things continue as they are, the Republican party will eventually lose its credibility amongst voters. Essentially, the GOP will forever become the party that cried wolf.